Big Island ENSO summer school

Summerschool
Group Photo


Scope of the summer school

The topics covered at the ENSO Summer School 2008 included:
Lecturers

Lecturers: Richard Kleeman, Scott Power, Mike McPhaden, Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Madgalena Balmaseda (not on photo)


Classes:

1. ENSO theory (Fei-Fei Jin):
Lecture 1
Lecture 2
Lecture 3

2. ENSO phenomenology (Mike McPhaden):
Lecture 1
Lecture 2
Lecture 3
Lecture 4

3. Paleo-ENSO (Axel Timmermann)
Lecture 1-4

4. Predictability theory (Richard Kleeman)
Lecture 1
Lecture 2

5. ENSO prediction (Magdalena Balmaseda)
Lecture 1
Lecture 2
Lecture 3
Lecture 4

6. ENSO, Decadal Variability and global Warming (Scott Power)
Lecture 1
Lecture 2
Lecture 3
Lecture 4






Group Photo 1


Hike




Student projects:


1. Dynamics and predictability of ENSO in an intermediate ENSO model (matlab or fortran skills required), Tutor: Richard Kleeman, students: students: Atul Kapur, Chaoxia Yuan
The students will work with Richard's intermediate ENSO model to study certain characteristics of ENSO, their dependence on the climate background state and the seasonal forecasting skill.
References to read:
http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/kleeman/Perez.pdf
http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/kleeman/andy99a.pdf
http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/kleeman/jclim.pdf

3. ENSO metrics in CMIP3 models (ferret or grads skills), Tutor: Scott Power, Magdalena Balmaseda, Students: Natalia Stefanova, Karl Stein, Sarah Bonham
Improving the ENSO performance in state-of-the art climate models requires a careful analysis of its statistical properties. The students will explore the statistical properties of ENSO in the CMIP-3/IPCC climate models as well as their changes under global warming. The project addresses questions such as: how do the propagation characteristics of ENSO change, how its frequency, amplitude, seasonal synchronization with the annual cycle etc.
References to read:
http://www.clivar.org/organization/wgcm/wgcm-11/reports/ENSO_in_IPCC.pdf
http://www.clivar.org/organization/pacific/Pacific_Metrics.pdf
http://ncas-climate.nerc.ac.uk/~ericg/publications/Guilyardi_CD06.pdf
http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere

4. Understanding the 2006-2008 ENSO cycle; rapid onsets and terminations; Tutor: Mike McPhaden, Magdalena Balmaseda, students: James Lloyd, Aaron Levine
the project will address the questions: Why did the 2006-07 El Nino end so  abruptly (it was not well predicted), why was the 2007-08 La Nina so strong, and why did the far eastern Pacific warm up in early 2008 (creating a lot problems with flooding in western So. America.)
Resources:
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/La_NINA2007.pdf
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/ENSEMBLES/data/data_dissemination.html
http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/w_data/ocean3.htm
http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification
 
5. Impact of ENSO and Antarctica: an analysis of AR4 models, ocean hindcast data and the ERA40 reanalysis (ferret, grads skills) Tutor: Axel Timmermann, Scott Power, students: Khalia Hill, Yushi Morioka
Observational evidence suggests that El Nino has a strong teleconnection to the southern hemisphere during austral winter. One of the preferred teleconnection modes is the Pacific South America (PSA) Pattern that affects temperatures over the Antarctic Peninsula. This region has experienced the most dramatic warming on earth, breaking off major ice-shelves and rapid glacier melting. This project addresses the question, how much of the changes in the Antarctic Peninsula can be related to tropical Forcing and the PSA, rather than to regional processes alone.
References to read:
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/animation.html
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/WilkinsIceSheet/
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta1.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta2.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta3.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta4.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta5.pdf

6. Analysis of warm pool El Nino events in ocean re-analysis data and the TOGA TAO array (ferret, grads,matlab skills) Tutor: Fei-Fei Jin, Mike McPhaden, students: Shayne McGregor, Sayaka Yasunaka
The warm-pool type of El Nino has its main center of action over the warm pool. Warm-pool El Nino events were rare prior to 1975 and have become more frequent in recent decades. This increase in the warm-pool El Nino activity is manifested by the increase of the running variance of the NINO4 index and the decrease in the correlation  between the NINO3 and NINO4 indices. This project addresses the questions: what is the mechanism for warm pool El Nino events, and why has the occurence changed during the last 30 years.
References to read
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/warmp.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/warmp1.pdf
w3.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/publications/grl_modoki.pdf

9. A tropical megadrought 4200 years ago: Analysis of proxy data: Tutor: Axel Timmermann, students: Gabriel Bayona, Intan Nurhati
Around 4200 years ago a mega-drought occured that lasted for about several decades and affected many civilizations such as the Egyptian, Accadian and Mesopotamian. This project will develop a global climate impact map using existing paleo-proxy data. Hypothesis on the origin of this drought will be tested.
References to read:
linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0033589406000743
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/4.21.pdf
leilan.yale.edu/pubs/files/Staubwasser-Weiss06_Quaternary_Research.pdf
Data Resources:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/icecore-varlist.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/speleothem.html

10. Relationship of changes in upper ocean heat content (recharge oscillator theory) to equatorial wave dynamics (delayed oscillator  theory), Tutor: Mike McPhaden, Fei-Fei Jin, students: Michael Bates, Pedro DiNezio, Daiwei Wang
Analysing the output from a wind forced linear equatorial wave model that goes back to 1980, the students will explore how the wave processes in this model move mass into an out of the equatorial band on ENSO time scales? Are there significant event to event differences in these processes? Are these processes operating in more complicated GCMS and/or ocean reanalyses?
References to read:
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/jin97jas1.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/battisti.pdf


Participating students

1. Yusho Morioka  (morioka at eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp)
2. Shayne McGregor (mcgregor at els.mq.edu.au)
3. James Lloyd (j.b.b.lloyd at reading.ac.uk)
4. Intan Nurhati  (intan at gatech.edu)
5. Atul Kapur (akapur at rsmas.miami.edu)
6. Sarah Bonham (eesb at leeds.ac.uk)
7. Sayaka Yasunaka (y_sayaka at ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp)
8.  Daiwei Wang (dwang at ldeo.columbia.edu)
9.  Michael Bates (m.bates at student.unsw.edu.au)
10. Chaoxia Yuan (yuan at eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp)
11. Natalia Stefanova (nataliastefanova at gmail.com)
12. Pedro Dinezio (pdinezio at rsmas.miami.edu)
13. Karl Stein (kjstein at gmail.com)
14. Gabriel Bayona (gbayonaf at eafit.edu.co)
15. Khalia Hill (s3021321 at science.unsw.edu.au)
16. Aaron Levine (aflevine at hawaii.edu)
PROGRAM

Day 1: 14 June
arrival at Hilo airport, three pick-up times for Bus transportation (11am, 2pm, 6pm)
ice-breaker party

Day 2: 15 June
introduction,
morning lecture on ENSO phenomenology (McPhaden),
afternoon lecture on ENSO theory (Jin),
afternoon time for student projects,
evening trip to beach

Day 3: 16 June
morning lecture on ENSO phenomenology (McPhaden),
afternoon lecture on ENSO theory (Jin),
afternoon students own research presentations

Day 4: 17 June
visit of Mauna Loa CO2 observatory (guided tour),
lava tube on Saddle Road,
Hilo, Rainbow Falls,
snorkeling in Hilo

Day 5: 18 June
morning lecture on ENSO theory (Jin),
afternoon lecture on paleo ENSO (Timmermann),
student projects

Day 6: 19 June
morning lecture on decadal climate variability, global warming and ENSO (Power),
afternoon lecture on ENSO prediction (Balmaseda),
student projects

Day 7: 20 June
morning lecture on decadal climate variability, global warming and ENSO (Power),
afternoon lecture on ENSO prediction (Balmaseda),
visit Hilo Tsunami museum

Day 8: 21 June
morning lecture on Predictability theory (Kleeman),
afternoon students own research presentations,
student projects

Day 9: 22 June
morning lecture on paleo ENSO (Timmermann),
Volcano National Park hiking

Day 10: 23 June
morning lecture on Predictability theory (Kleeman),
final presentations of student projects works,
farewell party

Day 11: 24 June
departure