Climate system Observational and Prediction Experiment (COPE)


Workshop on Seasonal Prediction


CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction

- 8th Session -

Honolulu, USA, 3-7 November 2003




Monday, November 3rd   COPE Workshop on Seasonal Prediction


9:00-9:15               Welcome and opening remarks

(B. Kirtman (chair COPE Task Force for Seasonal Prediction), J. Shukla (JSC), IPRC Representative (local host), A. Villwock (ICPO))

Presentation of the Agenda (B. Kirtman)


9:15-9:30               Background- Motivation and Foundation for COPE (B. Kirtman, J. Shukla)

Scientific Direction and Structure of WCRP

Description of COPE

Seamless Weekly-to-Decadal Prediction and Predictability Research in a Changing Climate

Charge for the COPE Task Force - Draft Terms of Reference


9:30-10:30             Current Status of Seasonal Prediction (S. Mason and S. Zebiak)

10:30-10:45          Coffee Break

10:45-12:15           Role of Oceans in Seasonal Prediction (CLIVAR)

·         Atlantic Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (S.-P. Xie; 10:45-11:15)

·         Pacific Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (A. Rosati: 11:10-11:45)

·         Indian Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (N. H. Saji: 11:45-12:15)

12:15-1:30                        Lunch

1:30-2:30               Role of Cryosphere in Seasonal Prediction (CliC; J. H. Christensen)

2:30-3:00               Seasonal Prediction at Meteo France (M. Deque)

3:00-3:30               Seasonal Prediction in China (D. Yihui)

3:30-3:45              Coffee Break

3:45-4:15               NCEP Coupled Predictions and Assimilation (S. Nadiga)

4:15-4:40               ECMWF Ensemble Prediction (R.  Hagedorn)

4:40-5:05               Seasonal Predictability of SMIP and SMIP/HFP (I.-S. Kang)

5:05-5:30               Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts and Predictability (M. Sugi)                          

5:30-8:00              Reception (Sponsored by COLA)

8:00                       Transportation to Hotel

Tuesday, November 4th  COPE Workshop on Seasonal Prediction


9:00-10:00           Role of Land Surface in Seasonal Prediction (GEWEX; R. Koster and P. Dirmeyer)


10:00-10:30           Impact of Soil Moisture on Seasonal Prediction (V. Kattsov)


10:30-11:00          Coffee Break


11:00-11:45           Role of Stratospheric Processes in Seasonal Prediction (SPARC; M. Baldwin)


11:45-12:00           The Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C; J. Kinter)


12:00-1:00            Lunch


1:00-2:00               Discussion on Seasonal Prediction in a Changing Climate

(Plenary Discussion)


2:00-3:30               Developing a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Seasonal Prediction


3:30-4:00              Coffee Break


4:00-5:00               Developing a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Seasonal Prediction


5:00                       Adjourn / Transportation to Hotel


Wednesday, November 5th


9:00-10:30             Developing a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Seasonal Prediction


10:30-11:00          Coffee Break


11:00-12:30           Developing a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Seasonal Prediction

                              Final discussion and future perspectives (plenary)


12:30-1:30                        End of COPE Workshop / Lunch


1:30-6:00               CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction 8th session


1.                  Welcome and opening remarks (B. Kirtman (chair, WGSIP), J. McCreary (local host), A. Villwock (ICPO)


2.                  Review of relevant developments and activities


2.1  Report from the CLIVAR IPO (A. Villwock)

2.2  Report from the 12th session of the CLIVAR SSG (B. Kirtman, A. Villwock)

2.3  Report from other meetings and groups relevant to WGSIP:

·         Pacific (K. Richards);

·         AAMON (Global Monsoon Modelling Initiative), VACS, VAMOS, Atlantic, etc.) (all, lead B. Kirtman, A. Villwock)

2.4  Reports from regional or national CLIVAR Committees (e.g., US CLIVAR). (all, lead B. Kirtman, T. Stockdale)

2.5  Other WCRP modelling activities; JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM); the JSC/CAS Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE); C20C project (to be advised, lead B. Kirtman, A. Villwock)

2.6  WGSIP – COPE Interaction (lead B. Kirtman)


3:30-4:00               Coffee Break


4:00-6:00               Afternoon Session – Part 2


2.7  Update on related studies such as the IRI/ARCs project (S. Zebiak) and the European DEMETER project (T. Stockdale), multi-model ensemble prediction project intercomparison projects; COLA/GFDL/GSFC/NCAR/NCEP study on DSP (B. Kirtman); Relationship between WGSIP and GODAE (N.N), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Network (I. Kang), European ENACT project on ocean data assimilation for seasonal prediction (M. Davey).

2.8  Application programmes (Clips, START, etc.) (M. Harrison, B. Kirtman)

2.9  Proposed WMO CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting products (M. Davey).


6:00                       Adjourn / Transportation to Hotel



Thursday, November 6th


8:30           Morning Session – part 1


3.                  WGSIP activities (brief updates)

3.1       WGSIP activities on El Niño Definition – Feedback from SSG and JSC (B. Kirtman, T. Stockdale)

3.2.1        Climate “events” and forecasts of the preceding year: (T. Stockdale, and all)

1. ENSO SST variability       (a) the rapid decline of the 2002 event

(b) the non-occurence of La Nina in 2003

(c) SST variability in other tropical ocean in addition to the ENSO region, and related convective activity in the tropics

2. European heatwave         (a) The dry conditions from Feb onwards

(b) The very high JJA and August temperatures

3. US East Coast                   persistent wet conditions for much of 2003

4. Indian monsoon                (a) heat wave prior to onset

(b) normal monsoon rainfall

5. Sahel summer rainfall      the Niger river reported at its highest level since 1928.

6. Cool summer over Japan (except south western part) during 2003 July and August.


10:30-11:00          Coffee Break


11:00-12:30           Morning Session – part 2

 3.3       Model experimentation and outputs standards project (S. Zebiak) and Expert Team for Long Range Forecast Verification (B. Kirtman, S. Power)

3.4              Dynamical seasonal prediction project: Progress of "SMIP-2" as a follow-on to phase 1 (SMIP). (G. Boer, M. Sugi);


12:30-1:30                        Lunch


1:30-3:30               Afternoon Session – part 1

3.4.1        AA-Monsoon update (I. Kang)

3.4.2        Down-scaling/regional models: (J. Syktus) (invited presentation)

3.4.3        Ocean Models Intercomparison experiment: update on this project (N.N.);

3.4.4        Interactions with GEWEX (R. Koster)

3.4.5        Multi-model ensemble techniques, include. Workshop update (G. Boer)

3.4.6        New studies addressing particular scientific questions, particular forecasts, etc. (all)


3:30-4:00              Coffee Break


4:00-6:00               Afternoon Session – part 2


4.                  Contributions from University of Hawaii and IPRC


6:00                       Adjourn / Transportation to Hotel


Friday, November 7th 


8:30 Morning Session


5.                  Developments in coupled seasonal/interannual forecasting systems

Participants will be given the opportunity to summarise briefly developments in coupled seasonal/interannual forecasting systems at their home institutions (if not already covered in previous discussion); (all)


10:30-11:00          Coffee Break

6.                  Organization of future activities (B. Kirtman).


6.1  Review arrangements for the activities to be continued under its auspices

6.2  Discuss the possibility of joint meetings with other CLIVAR groups (e.g. regional panels).

6.3  Membership

6.4  Agree on a date and place for next WGSIP session.


12:30-1:30                        Lunch


1:30-3:30               WGSIP (if required)


3:30-4:00              Coffee Break


4:00-6:00               WGSIP (if required)


6:00                       Adjourn / Transportation to Hotel