ENSO summer school projects

Summer School Student Projects

1. Dynamics and predictability of ENSO in an intermediate ENSO model (matlab or fortran skills required), Tutor: Richard Kleeman, students: students: Atul Kapur, Chaoxia Yuan
The students will work with Richard's intermediate ENSO model to study certain characteristics of ENSO, their dependence on the climate background state and the seasonal forecasting skill.
References to read:
http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/kleeman/Perez.pdf
http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/kleeman/andy99a.pdf
http://www.math.nyu.edu/faculty/kleeman/jclim.pdf

2. Indo-Pacific ocean interactions interactions (good linux, fortran and numerical modeling skills required), Tutor: Fei-Fei Jin, Axel Timmermann,
Using an ocean shallow water model, the students will implement a simple SST equation as well as a simple statistical atmospheric model that couples Indian and Pacific ocean. This project focuses on the mutual interaction between the variability modes in these basins
References to read:
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/masa1.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/masa2.pdf
The shallow water-code can be downloaded from
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/globalshallow.tar.gz

3. ENSO metrics in CMIP3 models (ferret or grads skills), Tutor: Scott Power, Magdalena Balmaseda, Students: Natalia Stefanova, Karl Stein, Sarah Bonham
Improving the ENSO performance in state-of-the art climate models requires a careful analysis of its statistical properties. The students will explore the statistical properties of ENSO in the CMIP-3/IPCC climate models as well as their changes under global warming. The project addresses questions such as: how do the propagation characteristics of ENSO change, how its frequency, amplitude, seasonal synchronization with the annual cycle etc.
References to read:
http://www.clivar.org/organization/wgcm/wgcm-11/reports/ENSO_in_IPCC.pdf
http://www.clivar.org/organization/pacific/Pacific_Metrics.pdf
http://ncas-climate.nerc.ac.uk/~ericg/publications/Guilyardi_CD06.pdf
http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere

4. Understanding the 2006-2008 ENSO cycle; rapid onsets and terminations; Tutor: Mike McPhaden, Magdalena Balmaseda, students: James Lloyd, Aaron Levine
the project will address the questions: Why did the 2006-07 El Nino end so abruptly (it was not well predicted), why was the 2007-08 La Nina so strong, and why did the far eastern Pacific warm up in early 2008 (creating a lot problems with flooding in western So. America.)
Resources:
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/La_NINA2007.pdf
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/ENSEMBLES/data/data_dissemination.html
http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/w_data/ocean3.htm
http://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi?someone@somewhere
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification

5. Impact of ENSO and Antarctica: an analysis of AR4 models, ocean hindcast data and the ERA40 reanalysis (ferret, grads skills) Tutor: Axel Timmermann, Scott Power, students: Khalia Hill, Yushi Morioka
Observational evidence suggests that El Nino has a strong teleconnection to the southern hemisphere during austral winter. One of the preferred teleconnection modes is the Pacific South America (PSA) Pattern that affects temperatures over the Antarctic Peninsula. This region has experienced the most dramatic warming on earth, breaking off major ice-shelves and rapid glacier melting. This project addresses the question, how much of the changes in the Antarctic Peninsula can be related to tropical Forcing and the PSA, rather than to regional processes alone.
References to read:
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/animation.html
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/WilkinsIceSheet/
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta1.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta2.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta3.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta4.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/anta5.pdf

6. Analysis of warm pool El Nino events in ocean re-analysis data and the TOGA TAO array (ferret, grads,matlab skills) Tutor: Fei-Fei Jin, Mike McPhaden, students: Shayne McGregor, Sayaka Yasunaka
The warm-pool type of El Nino has its main center of action over the warm pool. Warm-pool El Nino events were rare prior to 1975 and have become more frequent in recent decades. This increase in the warm-pool El Nino activity is manifested by the increase of the running variance of the NINO4 index and the decrease in the correlation between the NINO3 and NINO4 indices. This project addresses the questions: what is the mechanism for warm pool El Nino events, and why has the occurence changed during the last 30 years.
References to read
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/warmp.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/warmp1.pdf
w3.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/publications/grl_modoki.pdf

7. Effect of volcanic eruptions on ENSO in CGCM simulations of the last millennium, (ferret, grads skills) Tutor: Axel Timmermann
Observational and paleo-proxy evidence suggests that the volcanic eruptions have an influence on the ENSO cycle. By analyzing existing climate model simulations of the last
millennium and paleo-proxy data the students will identify, how volcanic eruptions affect ENSO behavior
References to read
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/adams03nat.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/summer_intro.pdf

8. The 1258 volcanic eruption and its impact on tropical climate: Analysis of speleothem and ice-core data, Tutor: Axel Timmermann
One of the largest volcanic eruptions in the last few thousand years occured in 1258. This event had devastating effects on human civilization with crop failures and plague reported all over Europe. This project will look at the effects of this massive eruption on tropical climate using climate model output and paleo-proxy data from caves and tropical ice-cores
References to read:
www.7minds.org/climate/talks/ENSO_volc_talk2007.pdf
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~julieneg/docs/Volcanoes_and_ENSO.pdf
http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0031018204001051
Data Resources:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/icecore-varlist.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/speleothem.html

9. A tropical megadrought 4200 years ago: Analysis of proxy data: Tutor: Axel Timmermann, students: Gabriel Bayona, Intan Nurhati
Around 4200 years ago a mega-drought occured that lasted for about several decades and affected many civilizations such as the Egyptian, Accadian and Mesopotamian. This project will develop a global climate impact map using existing paleo-proxy data. Hypothesis on the origin of this drought will be tested.
References to read:
linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0033589406000743
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/4.21.pdf
leilan.yale.edu/pubs/files/Staubwasser-Weiss06_Quaternary_Research.pdf
Data Resources:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/icecore-varlist.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/speleothem.html

10. Relationship of changes in upper ocean heat content (recharge oscillator theory) to equatorial wave dynamics (delayed oscillator theory), Tutor: Mike McPhaden, Fei-Fei Jin, students: Michael Bates, Pedro DiNezio, Daiwei Wang
Analysing the output from a wind forced linear equatorial wave model that goes back to 1980, the students will explore how the wave processes in this model move mass into an out of the equatorial band on ENSO time scales? Are there significant event to event differences in these processes? Are these processes operating in more complicated GCMS and/or ocean reanalyses?
References to read:
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/jin97jas1.pdf
http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/~axel/battisti.pdf

Participating students
1. Yusho Morioka
2. Shayne McGregor
3. James Lloyd
4. Intan Nurhati
5. Atul Kapur
6. Sarah Bonham
7. Sayaka Yasunaka
8. Daiwei Wang
9. Michael Bates
10. Chaoxia Yuan
11. Natalia Stefanova
12. Pedro Dinezio
13. Karl Stein
14. Gabriel Bayona
15. Khalia Hill
16. Aaron Levine