Axel Timmermann

Associate Professor of Physical Oceanography

chair of International CLIVAR Pacific Panel

IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii,

2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, HI 96822

USA

Tel. +1 808 9562720

axel@hawaii.edu

NEWS:

Educationh

• 1998 - Ph. D., Natural Sciences, Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg
  Thesis: Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general
  circulation model
• 1995 - Diploma Physics, University of Marburg. Thesis: Photon-interferometry of the
  quark-gluon plasma (in German)
• 1992 - B. Sc., Physics, University of Marburg

Awards

•  Rosenstiel award of the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, 2007, I, II, III, IV

Research Interests

• ENSO dynamics
• Coral bleaching
• Stability of the thermohaline circulation
• Stochastic climate modeling
• Millennial-scale climate variability
• Climate predictability
• Paleo-modeling
• Holocene climate change
• Chaos theory and climate dynamics
• Bio-physical interactions in the oceans
• Lake Kauhako
  

Professional Experience

• Associate Professor in Physical Oceanography, University of Hawaii, since August 2004
• Head of the DFG Research Group: "Centennial and Millennial Climate Variability", Institut fuer Meerskunde, Universitaet Kiel, Germany, since April 2001, publications of our group (not updated)
• Postdoctoral Fellow, International Pacific Research Center, Hawaii, USA
  October 2000 - March 2001
• Postdoctoral Fellow, Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, the Netherlands
  in the research division Predictability of Weather and Climate, Oct. 1998-Sept.2000

Further Professional Experience

• Organizor of International CLIVAR ENSO adventure summer camp, Big Island, July 2008
• Ex officio Member of the CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group, since August 2008
  
• Visiting Professor, Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, Université de Louvain La Neuve, Belgium, July-August, 2007
• Organizor of CLIVAR workshop on "Western Tropical Pacific: Hatchery for ENSO and Global Teleconnections", Guangzhou, November 26-28, 2007
• Organizor of CLIVAR Pacific Panel meeting, Guangzhou, November 29-30, 2007
• Organizer of the WCRP/CLIVAR Workshop on Multidecadal to Centennial Global Climate Variability, November 15th-17th, 2006,  (talks can be downloaded here)
• Chair of the International CLIVAR Pacific Panel, since January 2005
• Visiting Scientist, Leibniz Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, IfM-GEOMAR, August, 2005
• Member of the Air-Sea Interaction Committee of the AMS, December 2004-Dec. 2007
  
• Co-Chair of SPIE's international Asia-Pacific Symposium on remote Sensing of the Atmosphere, Ocean, Environmenty and Space, Hanzhou, China September 2002
• Visiting Scientist, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawai'i, USA, Winter 2001/2002
• Secretary of the  Nonlinear Processes section of the European Geophysical Society, 2000 -2007
  
• Organizer of the International Workshop on Dynamical System Concepts in Climate Dynamics , De Bilt, the Netherlands, 2000 (April)
• Co-author of the Greenpeace Report on Coral Bleaching, September 2000
• Visiting Scientist, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, USA, 2000 (February)
• IPCC: Co-author of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Chapter 2,7,9, 1999
• Lecturer, KNMI. Lecture series on Stochastic Climate Models, 1999 (January - April )
• German Climate Expert Group Delegate to Jakarta, 1997
• Oceanographic research cruise ARC XII to the arctic ocean, 1996
• Teaching assistant, University of Marburg. Subjects: cosmology and particle physics, 1994-1995

Reviewer for

• NOAA
• NSF
• DFG (German Science Foundation)
  
• Paleoceanography
• NWO/NERC proposals
• J. Geophys. Research
• Journal of Climate
• J. Atmospheric Sciences
• Geophysical Research Letters
• Ocean Modeling
• Climatic Change
• Advances in Geophysics
• Climate Dynamics
• Nature
• Science
• Climate of the past

Publications

1. Timmermann, A., L. Menviel, L. McLeod, Z. Liu, 2008: Equatorial coral reefs hit worst by future climate change, in preparation
   
2. Timm. O., P. Koehler, A. Timmermann, L. Menviel, 2008:  Mechanisms for the onset of the African Humid Period, in preparation.
3. Heinemann, M., A. Timmermann and U. Feudel, 2008: Interactions between marine biology and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation: a conceptual model analysis,in preparation..
4. Timmermann, A., J. Knies, O. Timm, 2008: Northern Hemispheric freshwater pulses as major amplifier for early glacial ice-sheet build-up, in preparation.
5. Menviel. L, A. Timmermann, A. Mouchet and O. Timm, 2008: CO2 release from northern hemispheric vegetation contributes to millennial-scale Antarctic warming, Paleoceanography, submitted.
   
6. Kienast, M, M. Lehmann, A. Timmermann, E. Galbraith, T. Bolliet, A. Holbourn, C. Normandeau, C. Laj, 2008: A mid-Holocene transition in the nitrogen dynamics of the Western Equatorial Pacific: Evidence of a deepening thermocline? submitted.
   
7. Yoo-Geun Ham, Jong-Seong Kug, In-Sik Kang, Fei-Fei Jin and Axel Timmermann, 2008: Impact of diurnal atmosphere-ocean coupling on tropical climate in a coupled GCM, submitted.
8. Loeptien, U., C. Eden, A. Timmermann,  H. Dietze, 2008: Effects of biologically induced differential heating in an eddy-permitting coupled ocean-ecosystem model, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.
9. Okumura, Y, C. Deser, A. Hu, A. Timmermann, S.-P. Xie, 2008: An abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its impact on North Pacific climate, J. Climate,  submitted.
10. Timmermann, A., Y. Okumura, A. Schilla, S. J. Lorenz, 2007: Millennial to orbital-scale tropical forcing of Antarctic climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted
11. Uchikawa, J,  B.N. Popp, J.E. Schoonmaker, A. Timmermann, S. J. Lorenz, 2007: Evidence of Holocene drying trend in the subtropical central Pacific: New insights based on isotopic analysis of sedimentary plant biomakers from Hawaii and global climate model simulation, submitted.
12. Timmermann, A., F.-F. Jin, 2007: ENSO instability revisited, 'Aha Huliko'a proceedings, submitted.
13. Timmermann, A., O. Timm and L. Stott, L. Menviel, 2007, The roles of CO2 and orbital forcing in driving southern hemispheric temperature variations during the last 21,000 years J. Climate, submitted.
14. Steph, S, R. Tiedemann, M. Prange, J. Groeneveld, M. Schulz, A. Timmermann, D. Nuernberg, C. Saukel, and Gerald H. Haug, 2007, Early Pliocene increase in thermohaline overturning preconditioned the development of the modern equatorial cold tongue, Paleoceanography, submitted
15. Jin, F.-F., J-S. Kug, A. Timmermann and I-S. Kang, 2007: Recent and future intensification of El Nino and tropical Pacific intraseasonal variability, submitted
16. Menviel, L., A. Timmermann, A. Mouchet and O. Timm, Climate and marine carbon cycle response to changes in the strength of the southern hemispheric westerlies, Paleoceanography, 2008, doi:10.1029/2008PA001604.
17. Timm, O., A. Timmermann, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Segawa, 2007: On the definition of paleo-seasons in transient climate simulations, Paleoceanography, Paleoceanography, 23, PA2221, doi:10.1029/2007PA001461.
18. Pahnke, K. J. Sachs, L. Keigwin, A. Timmermann, S.-P. Xie, 2007: Eastern tropical Pacific hydrological changes during the past 27,000 years from D/H ratios in alkenones, Paleoceanography, 22, PA4214, doi:10.1029/2007PA001468.
19. Xie, S.-P., Y. Okumura, T. Miyama, and A. Timmermann, 2008: Influences of Atlantic climate change on the tropical Pacific via the Central American Isthmus. J. Climate, in press.
    
20. Menviel, L., A. Timmermann, A. Mouchet, O. Timm, 2008: Meridional reorganizations of marine and terrestrial productivity during glacial Heinrich events, Paleocenography, 23, doi:10.1029/2007PA001445.
21. T.F. Stocker, A. Timmermann. M. Renold, O. Timm, 2007: Effects of salt compensation on the climate model response in simulations of large changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, J. Climate, 20, 5912-5928.
    
22. F. Lamy, J. Kaiser, H. Arz, U. Ninnemann, O. Timm, A. Timmermann, D. Hebbeln, 2007: Modulation of the bipolar seesaw in the Southeast Pacific during Termination 1, Earth Planetary Science Lett., 259, 400-413
23. Stott, L. A. Timmermann, R. Thunell, 2007: Southern Hemisphere and Deep Sea Warming led deglacial Atmospheric CO2 rise and Tropical Warming, Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1143791
24. Krebs, U., A. Timmermann, 2007: Tropical air-sea interactions accelerate the recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation after a major shutdown, J. Climate, 20, 4940-4956
25. Timmermann, A., Y. Okumura, S.-I. An, A. Clement, B. Dong, E. Guilyardi, A. Hu, J. Jungclaus, U. Krebs, M. Renold, T.F. Stocker, R.J. Stouffer, R. Sutton, S.-P. Xie, and J. Yin, 2007: The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO, J. Climate, 20, 4899-4919
    
26. Jin, F.-F., L. Lin, A. Timmermann, J. Zhao, 2006:Ensemble-mean dynamics of the ENSO Recharge Oscillator under state-dependent stochastic forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03807, doi:10.1029/2006GL027372.
    
27. Timm, O., A. Timmermann, 2007: Simulation of the last 21,000 years using accelerated transient boundary conditions, J. Climate, 20, 4377-4401.
28. Timmermann, A., and S. Lorenz, S.I. An, A. Clement, S.-P. Xie, 2006: , The effect of orbital forcing on the mean climate and variability of the tropical Pacific, J. Climate, 20, 4147-4159.
29. Krebs, U., A. Timmermann, 2007: Fast advective recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation after a Heinrich event, Paleoceanography, 22, No. 1, PA1220,10.1029/2005PA001259.
30. S.-I. An, J.S. Kug, A. Timmermann, I.S. Kang, 2006: The influence of ENSO on the generation of decadal variability in the North Pacific, J. Climate, 20, 667-680.
31. Goosse, H., O. Arzel, J, Luterbacher, M. E. Mann, H. Renssen, N. Riedwyl, A. Timmermann, E. Xoplaki and H. Wanner, 2006: The Origin of the "European Medieval Warm Period", Climate of the Past, 2, 99-113.
32. H. Goosse, H. Renssen, A. Timmermann, R.S. Bradley and M.E. Mann, 2006: Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select an optimal realisation in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6.
33. F. Justino, A. Timmermann, U. Merkel and R.W. Peltier, 2006: An initial intercomparison of atmospheric and oceanic climatology  for the ICE-5G and ICE-4G models of LGM paleotopography, J. Climate, 19, 3-14.
34. Reuning, L., J. Rejmer, C. Betzler, A. Timmermann, S. Steph 2005: Sub-Milankovitch cycles in periplatform carbonates from the early Pliocene Great Bahama Bank, Paleoceanography, PA 1017, doi: 10.1029/2004PA001075.
35. Timmermann, A., S.-I. An, U. Krebs, H. Goosse 2005: ENSO suppression due to weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, J. Climate 18, 3122-3139.
36. Timmermann, A. U. Krebs, F. Justino, H. Goosse, T. Ivanochko, 2005: Mechanisms for millennial-scale global synchronization during the last glacial period , Paleoceanography,  20 (4), PA4008, doi: 10.1029/2004PA00109.
37. Justino, F., and A. Timmermann 2005: Synoptic Reorganization of large-scale atmospheric flow during the Last Glacial Maximum. J. Climate 18, 2826-2846.
38. Goosse, H., H. Renssen, A. Timmermann, and R. Bradley 2005: Natural and forced climate variability during the last millennium: implications for model-data comparison. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 1345-1360.
39. Schulz, M., A. Paul, and A. Timmermann 2004: Glacial-Interglacial Contrast in Climate Variability at Centennial-to-Millennial Timescales: Observations and Conceptual Model. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2219-2230.
40. Abshagen, J., and A. Timmermann 2004: An Organizing Center for Thermohaline Excitability, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2756-2760.
41. An, S.-I., A. Timmermann, L. Bejarano, F.-F. Jin, F. Justino. Z. Liu, and S. Tudhope(2004): ENSO dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum. Paleocanography, 19, PA4009, doi:10.1029/2004PA001020.
42. Marzeion, B., A. Timmermann, R. Murtugudde, and F.-F. Jin 2004: Bio-physical feedbacks in the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, Journal of Climate, 18, 58-70.
43. Timmermann, A., F.B. Justino, F.-F. Jin, and H. Goosse 2004: Surface temperature control in the North and tropical Pacific during the last glacial maximum. Climate Dynamics, 23, 353-370.
44. A.J. Gamez, C.S. Zhou, A. Timmermann, and J. Kurths 2004: Nonlinear dimensionality reduction in climate data, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, 393-398.
45. Eden, C., and A. Timmermann, 2004: The influence of the Galapagos Islands on tropical temperatures, currents and the generation of tropical instability waves. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 10.120/2004GL200600.
46. Knutti, R., J. Flueckiger, T.F. Stocker, and A. Timmermann, 2004: Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through continental freshwater discharge and ocean circulation. Nature, 430, 851-856.
47. Timmermann, A., and H. Goosse, 2004: Is the wind-stress forcing essential for the meridional overturning circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04303, doi: 10.1029/2003GL01877.
48. Timmermann, A., F.-F. Jin, and M. Collins, 2004: Intensification of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific due to Greenhouse Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12208, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019442.
49. Jin, F.-F., S.I. An, A. Timmermann, and X. Zhang, 2003: Strong El Nino events and nonlinear dynamical heating, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016356.
50. Miller, A.J., M.A. Alexander, G.J. Boer, F. Chai, K. Denman, D.J. Erickson, R. Frouin, A.J. Gabric, E.A. Laws, M.R. Lewis, Z. Liu, R. Murtugudde, S. Nakamoto, D.J. Neilson, J.R. Norris, J.C. Ohlmann, R.I. Perry, N. Schneider, K.M. Shell, and A. Timmermann, 2003: Potential feedbacks between Pacific Ocean ecosystems and interdecadal climate variations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 617-633.
51. Timmermann, A., 2003: Decadal ENSO Amplitude Modulations: A Nonlinear Mechanism. Global Planet. Changes, 135-156.
52. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin, 2003: A Nonlinear Theory for El Nino Bursting. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 152-165.
53. Timmermann, A., M. Schulz, H. Gildor, and E. Tziperman, 2003: Coherent Resonant millennial-scale climate transitions triggered by massive meltwater pulses. J. Climate, 16 (15), 2569-2585.
54. Pasmanter, R., and A. Timmermann, 2002: Cyclic Markov Chains with an Application to an intermediate ENSO model. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 10, 197-210.
55. Schulz, M., A. Timmermann, and A. Paul, 2002: Relaxation oscillators in concert: A conceptual framework for late Pleistocene millennial-scale climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2193, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016144.
56. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin, 2002: A Nonlinear Mechanism for Decadal El Nino Amplitude Changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2001GL013369.
57. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin, 2002: Phytoplankton influences on tropical climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi: 10.10129/2002GL15434.
58. Monahan, A.H., A. Timmermann, and G. Lohmann, 2001: Comments on "Noise-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation." J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 1112-1116.
59. Timmermann, A., 2001: Changes of ENSO stability due to Greenhouse Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2064-2066.
60. Timmermann, A., H. Voss, and R. Pasmanter, 2001: Empirical Dynamical System Modeling of ENSO using Nonlinear Inverse Techniques. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 1579-1598.
61. Contributing Author of "Projections Future Climate Change," in Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, 2001.
62. Contributing Author, " Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks" in Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, 2001.
63. Contributing Author, "Observed Climate Variability and Change" in Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, 2001.
64. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., H. Hoegh-Guldberg, D.K. Stout, H. Cesar, and A. Timmermann, 2000: Pacific in Peril: Biological, Economic and Social Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Coral Reefs. Greenpeace report. ISBN 1876221100.
65. Groetzner, A., M. Latif, A. Timmermann, and R. Voss, 1999: Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model. J. Climate, 12, 2607-2624.
66. Timmermann, A., 1999: Detecting the Nonstationary Response of ENSO to Greenhouse Warming. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2313-2325.
67. Timmermann, A., and M. Latif, 1999: Modes of Climate Variability as simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM3/LSG, Part I: ENSO-like climate variability, Clim. Dyn., 15, 605-618.
68. Timmermann, A., M. Latif, A. Bacher, J. Oberhuber, and E. Roeckner, 1999: Increased El Nino frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature, 398, 694-696.
69. Timmermann, A., and G. Lohmann, 1999: Noise-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 1891-1900.
70. Timmermann, A., M. Latif , R.Voss, and A. Groetzner, 1998: Northern Hemispheric Interdecadal Variability: A coupled Air-Sea Mode. J. Climate, 11, 1906-1931.
71. Arbex, N., M. Pluemer, U. Ornik, A. Timmermann, and R.M. Weiner, 1995: Thermal photon production in heavy ion collisions. Phys. Lett., B345, 307-312.
72. Timmermann, A., M. Pluemer, L.V. Razumov, and R.M. Weiner, 1994: Photon Interferometry of quark-gluon dynamics reexamined. Phys.Review, C50 (6), 3060.

Other publications

1. U. Ornik, M. Pluemer, A. Timmermann, R. Weiner 1995: Thermal dilepton-production in S+Au collisions at Elab=200 AGeV, unpublished manuscript, Figure 1, Figure 2
2. A. Timmermann. U. Ornik, M. Pluemer, R. Weiner, 1995: How to probe the Pre-Equilibrium Stage and Phase-transition of quark matter by Photon Interferometry, in XXV International Symposium on Multiparticle Dynamics, 1995, World Scientific, Ed. D. Bruncko, L. Sandor, J. Urban.
3.   A. Timmermann, 1995: Photon-Interferometry of the Quark-Gluon Plasma, Diplom/Master Thesis, University of Marburg
4.   A. Timmermann 1998: Modes of climate variability as simulated by a coupled general circulation model, PhD Thesis, University of Hamburg.
5.   A. Timmermann 2000: A Simple Threshold Model for the 100,000 year Ice volume cycle during the Late Pleistocene, unpublished manuscript.
6.   A. Timmermann and F.-F. Jin, 2005: "Predictability of Coupled Processes" in Predictability of Weather and Climate, Eds. T. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, Cambridge University Press
7.   J. Picaut, T. Delcroix, G. Eldin, A. Ganachaud, C. Maes, J. McCreary and A. Timmermann, Proceedings of the "International Workshop on the Low-Frequency Modulation of ENSO"
8.   Nico Caetano, Axel Timmermann, CLIVAR Pacific panel workshop report
9.   M. Schulz, A. Sima, A. Paul and A. Timmermann, 2005: Die juengere Dryas - ein einmaliges Ereignis oder eine typische Eigenschaft glazialer Terminationen?, unpublished manuscript
10. Richards, K., A. Timmermann, 2008: Downscaling of climate change projections for the Southwestern Pacific with a focus on Melanesia.
11. A. Timmermann, Perspectives on the Remote Control of ENSO, CLIVAR exchanges, submitted.
    

Current Research grants:

1. "Understanding Climate-Biogeochemical Feedbacks During the Last Glacial Cycle: A Systematic Modeling and Paleo-Data Synthesis Approach", NSF, ATM07-12690, PI: Axel Timmermann, $314,100.
2. "Understanding Annual Cycle-ENSO Interactions In Climate Change Simulations", DOE, PI: Niklas Schneider, co-PI: Axel Timmermann, $440,724.
3. "Changes in the Tropical Pacific Climate Variability During the Last Millenium: External Forcing Versus Internal Variability", NOAA, PI: Axel Timmermann, co-PI: Oliver Timm, $192,000.
   
4. "Acceleration of the Last Glacial Termination Due to Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks ", NSF, ATM06-28393, PI: Axel Timmermann, $42,465.

Previous Research grants:

Supervision of postdocs, PhD and master students

Some talks to download

Lectures

My family