ABSTRACT

In this talk, the reasons for the slow progress in improving tropical cyclone intensity forecast will be discussed, with the emphases on the complexity of processes leading to tropical cyclone intensity changes compared to tropical cyclone motion. The major uncertainties contributing to errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts and factors that are key to tropical cyclone intensity change will be discussed based on results from observational, numerical modeling studies, and a new theoretical framework. Finally, future directions towards improved tropical cyclone intensity forecasts will be highlighted as a hope in the next decade or so.