2015 - Ph.D. Atmospheric Science, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Dissertation awarded the Science for Society Prize, Columbia University, New York, NY
2012 - M.A., Atmospheric Science, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY
2009 - B.A., Environmental Economics and Policy, High Honors, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
2009 - B.S., Geography, High Honors, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
Research Interests
Professional Experience
Assistant Professor, Department of Earth Sciences University of Hawai‘i, Mānoa, HI 2019–
Assistant Scientist, Department of Geology and Geophysics 2018–2019 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA
Advanced Studies Program 2016–2017 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
CIRES Research Associate, 2015– 2016 University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Fellowships and Awards
NCAR ASP Postdoctoral Fellowship 2016
DEES Science for Society Prize 2015
AGU Fall Meeting Outstanding Student Presentation Award 2009
Phi Beta Kappa 2009
Refereed Publications
Devanand, A., G.M. Falster, Z.E. Gillett, S. Hobeichi, C.M. Holgate, C. Jin, M. Mu, T. Parker, S.W. Rifai,
K.S. Rome, M. Stojanovic, E. Vogel, N. Abram, G. Abramowitz, S. Coats, et al., Australia’s Tinderbox
Drought: an extreme natural event likely worsened by human‐caused climate change, Science Advances, in press
Ellison, L. and S. Coats, A framework for assessing the drivers and impacts of drought events: the
contemporary drought in the western and central United States, Journal of Climate, 2024.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐23‐0473.1
Steinberg, J.M., C.G. Piecuch, B.D. Hamlington, P.R. Thompson, and S. Coats, Influence of Deep‐Ocean
Warming on Coastal Sea‐Level Decadal Trends in the Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Geophysical Research:
Oceans, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019681
Tamalavage, A.E., P.J. van Hengstum, S.J. Feakins, S.N. Little, S. Coats, T.S. Winkler, R.M. Sullivan, P.
Louchouarn, J.P. Donnelly and N.A. Albury, Middle to late Holocene paleolimnology of a sinkhole lake
in the northern Bahamas, and its linkage to regional climate variability, Journal of Paleolimnology,
2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933‐023‐00291‐y
Bhattacharya, T., R. Fang, C.R. Maupin, S. Coats, P.R. Brennan and E. Carter, California margin temperatures modulate regional circulation and extreme summer precipitation in the desert Southwest,
Environmental Research Letters, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/110.1088/1748‐9326/acfd43
Falster, G., B. Konecky, S. Coats and S. Stevenson, Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over
the past millennium, Nature, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐023‐06447‐0
Janiszewski, H.A., Z. Eilon, J. Russell, B. Brunsvik, J. Gaherty, S. Mosher, W. Hawley and S. Coats, Broadband Ocean Bottom Seismometer Noise Properties, Geophysical Journal International, 2022. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac450
Evans, C.P., T. Ault, S. Coats, C.M. Carrillo, X. Li, D.A. Herrera, B.N. Benton, Intrinsic century‐scale variability in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and their influence on southwestern US hydroclimate, Geophysical Research Letters, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099770
Carrillo, C.M., S. Coats, M. Newman, D.A. X. Li, R. Moore, S. Shin, S. Stevenson, F. Lehner and T. Ault,
Megadrought: A series of unfortunate La Ni˜na events, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,
2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036376
Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, E.R. Cook, A.P. Williams, K.J. Anchukaitis, J.S. Mankin, K. Allen, L. Andreu‐Hayles,
T.R. Ault, S. Belmecheri, S. Coats, et al., Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nature Review Earth Environment, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017‐022‐00329‐1
Scheff, J., S. Coats and M. Laguë, Why do the global warming responses of land‐surface models and climatic dryness metrics disagree, Earth’s Future, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002814
Li, S., T. Wahl, A. Barroso, S. Coats, S. Dangendorf, C.G. Piecuch, Q. Sun, P.R. Thompson and L. Liu,
Contributions of different sea‐level processes to high‐tide flooding along the U.S. coastline, Journal of
Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018276
Ultee, L., S. Coats and J. Mackay, Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century, Earth System
Dynamics Discussions, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd‐13‐935‐2022
Mikkelsen, A.B., T.R. Anderson, S. Coats and C.H. Fletcher, Complex drivers of reef‐fronted beach change,
Marine Geology, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2022.106770
Stevenson, S., S. Coats, D. Touma, J. Cole, F. Lehner, J. Fasullo and B. Otto‐Bliesner, 21st Century Hydroclimate: A Continually Changing Baseline, with Stronger Extremes, Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108124119
Piecuch, C.G., S. Coats, S. Dangendorf, F.W. Landerer, J.T. Reager, P.R. Thompson and T. Wahl, Hightide floods and storm surges during atmospheric rivers on the US west coast, Geophysical Research
Letters, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096820
Gulev S.K., P.W. Thorne, J. Ahn, F.J. Dentener, C.M. Domingues, S. Gerland, D. Gong, D.S. Kaufman, H.C.
Nnamchi, J. Quaas, J.A. Rivera, S. Satheyendranath, S.L. Smith, B. Trewin, K. von Schuckmann and R.S.
Vose, Chapter 2: Changing state of the climate system. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2021. [Contributing Authors: G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.
Albani, R.P. allan, R.A. Betts, L. Beusch, K. Beyene, J.E. Box, D. Breitburg, K.D. Burke, M.P. Byrne, J.A.
Church, S. Coats, N. Cohen, W. Collins, O.R., Cooper, P. Di Nezio, F.B. Dias, P.J. Durack, et al.]
Lehner F. and S. Coats, Does regional hydroclimate change scale linearly with global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095127
Osman, M.B., S. Coats, S.B. Das, J.R. McConnell and N. Chellman, A 13 century context for north Atlantic
jet stream projections, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/
10.1073/pnas.2104105118
Falster, G.M., B. Konecky, M. Madhavan, S. Stevenson and S. Coats, Imprint of the Pacific Walker Circulation in global precipitation δ18O, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 2021. DOI: https://doi
.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐21‐0190.1
Sullivan, R.M., P.J. van Hengstum, S. Coats, J.P. Donnelly, A.E. Tamalavage, T.S. Winkler and N.A. Albury, Hydroclimate dipole drives multi‐centennial variability in the western tropical north Atlantic
margin during the middle and late Holocene, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 2021. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004184
Scheff, J., J.S. Mankin, S. Coats and Haibo Liu, CO2‐plant effects do not account for the gap between
dryness indices and projected dryness impacts in CMIP6 or CMIP5, Environmental Research Letters,
2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748‐9326/abd8fd
Wallace, E.J., S. Coats, K. Emanuel and J.P. Donnelly, Centennial‐scale shifts in storm frequency captured in paleohurricane records from the Bahamas arise predominantly from random variability, Geophysical Research Letters, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091145
Touma, D., S. Stevenson, F. Lehner and S. Coats, Human‐driven greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions cause distinct regional impacts on extreme fire weather, Nature Communications, 2021. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467‐020‐20570‐w
Stevenson, S., A.T. Wittenberg, J.T. Fasullo, S. Coats and B. Otto‐Bliesner, Understanding Diverse Model
Projections of Future Extreme El Niño, Journal of Climate, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐
D‐19‐0969.1
Tamalavage, A.E., P.J. van Hengstum, P. Louchouam, P.L. Fall, J.P. Donnelly, N.A. Albury, S. Coats and S.J.
Feakins, Plant wax evidence for precipitation and vegetation change from a coastal sinkhole lake in the
Bahamas spanning the last 3000 years, Organic Geochemistry, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/
j.orggeochem.2020.104120
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, S. Stevenson, J.T. Fasullo, B. Otto‐Bliesner and T.R. Ault, Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts, Journal of Climate, 2020. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐20‐0004.1
Mankin, J.S., F. Lehner, S. Coats and K.A. MicKinnon, The value of initial condition large ensembles to
robust adaptation decision‐making, Earth’s Future, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001610
Bhattacharya, T. and S. Coats, Atlantic‐Pacific gradients drive last millennium hydroclimate variability
in Mesoamerica, Geophysical Research Letters, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088061
Fan, W., J.J. McGuire, C.D. de Groot‐Hedlin, M.A. Hedlin, S. Coats and J.W. Fielder, Stormquakes, Geophysical Research Letters, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084217
Parsons, L.A. and S. Coats, Ocean‐Atmosphere trajectories of extended drought in southwestern North
America, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019
JD030424
Cook, B.I., A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, J.G. Palmer, E.R. Cook, D.W. Stahle and S. Coats, Cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the late sixteenth century North American megadrought, Journal
of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029323
Samanta, D., K.B. Karnauskas, N. Goodkin, S. Coats, J.E. Smerdon and L. Zhang, Coupled model biases
breed spurious low‐frequency variability in the tropical pacific ocean, Geophysical Research Letters,
2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079455
Herrera‐Hernandez, D.A., T.R. Ault, J.T. Fasullo, S. Coats, C.M. Carrillo, B.I. Cook and A.P. Williams, Exacerbation of the 2013‐2016 Pan‐Caribbean drought by anthropogenic warming, Geophysical Research
Letters, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408
Cook, B.I., A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, J.G. Palmer, E.R. Cook, D.W. Stahle and S. Coats, Cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures during the late sixteenth‐century North American megadrought, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029323
Parsons, L., S. Coats and J.T. Overpeck, The continuum of drought in Southwestern North America,
Journal of Climate, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐18‐0010.1
Coats, S. and K.B. Karnauskas, A role for the Equatorial Undercurrent in the ocean dynamical thermostat, Journal of Climate, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐17‐0513.118
Stevenson, S., J.T. Overpeck, J. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, B. Otto‐Bliesner, T. Ault, G. Loope and J. Cole,
Climate Variability, Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Hydroclimate Extremes, Journal of Climate,
2018. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐17‐0407.1
Ault, T., S. St. George, J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, J.S. Rankin, C.C. Carillo, B.I. Cook and S. Stevenson, A
robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America, Journal of
Climate, 2018. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐17‐0154.1
Coats, S. and K.B. Karnauskas, Are simulated and observed 20th century tropical Pacific sea surface
temperature trends significant relative to internal variability?, Geophysical Research Letters, 2017.
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074622
Smerdon, J.E., J. Luterbacher, S.J. Phipps, K.J. Anchukaitis, T. Ault, S. Coats, et al., Comparing proxy and
model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Climate of the Past
Discussions, 2017. DOI: 10.5194/cp‐13‐1851‐2017
Lehner, F., S. Coats, T.F. Stocker, A.G. Pendergrass, B.M. Sanderson, C.C. Raible and J.E. Smerdon, Projected drought risk in 1.5◦C and 2.0◦C warmer climates, Geophysical Research Letters, 2017. DOI:
10.1002/2017GL074117
Baek, S.H., J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, B.I. Cook, R. Seager and A.P. Williams, Seasonality and teleconnection
signals across the North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlas, Journal of Climate,
2017. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐16‐0766.1
Scheff, J., R. Searger, H. Liu and S. Coats, Are glacials dry? Consequences for paleoclimatology and for
greenhouse warming, Journal of Climate, 2017. DOI: 110.1175/JCLI‐D‐16‐0854.1
Coats, S. and J.S. Mankin, The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070445
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, E.R. Cook and K.J. Anchukaitis, Internal ocean‐atmosphere
variability drives megadroughts in Western North America, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016. DOI:
10.1002/2016GL070105
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, K.B. Karnauskas and R. Seager, The improbable but unexceptional occurrence
of North American megadrought clustering during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Environmental Research Letters, 2016. DOI: 10.1088/1748‐9326/11/7/074025
Cook, B.I., E.R. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A.P. Williams, S. Coats, D.W. Stahle and J.V. Dìaz, North
American megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and simulations, WIRES Climate Change,
2016. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.394
Coats, S., D. Griffin, R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon and B.I. Cook, Winter‐to‐summer precipitation phasing
in southwestern North America: A multi‐century perspective from paleoclimatic model‐data comparisons, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023085
Smerdon, J.E., S. Coats and T.R. Ault, Model‐dependent spatial skill in pseudoproxy experiments testing
climate field reconstruction methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, 2015.
DOI: 10.1007/s00382‐015‐2684‐0
Coats, S., B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon and R. Seager, North American pan‐continental droughts in model
simulations of the last millennium, Journal of Climate, 2015. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐14‐00634.1
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, Are simulated megadroughts in the North American
southwest forced?, Journal of Climate, 2015. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐14‐00071.1
Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, Global warming and 21st century drying, Climate
Dynamics, 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s00382‐014‐2075‐y
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager, Stationarity of the tropical Pacific teleconnection to
North America in the CMIP5/PMIP3 model simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 2013. DOI:
10.1002/grl.50938
Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. González‐Rouco, Megadroughts in southwestern
North America in millennium‐length ECHO‐G simulations and their comparison to proxy drought reconstructions, Journal of Climate, 2013. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI‐D‐12‐00603.1